The Southwest Incident Most Certainly Related to Vaccine Mandates

October 14, 2021

I wonder whether the Southwest incident over the weekend might be a sign that the push for mandatory vaccinations – analyzed as a political power play – might be a significant turning point as well. For context, more than a thousand Southwest flights were canceled on Sunday in what many believe was a protest by employees about the company’s vaccine policy.

You don’t have to search too far on social media to get the sense that this was probably the case, although that’s not the official story we are told now. Here’s how Forbes described it:

“Two days after the pilots’ union at Southwest Airlines asked a federal judge to block the company’s vaccine mandate, the airline canceled 27% of its planned flights for Sunday, CNBC reported, citing issues with weather and air traffic control that have not resulted in widespread grounding at other airlines.”

Such work actions are illegal, and the Southwest Airline Pilots Association (SWAPA) steadfastly denied any direct connection between the flight cancellations and the vaccine mandate – a fact Biden’s team has pounced on to downplay the significance of the incident. My own personal experience in union matters leads me to view such denials with a fair bit of skepticism.

If a client were to ask us to study this situation and make a prediction, we’d start by listing axioms and then speculate on how the logic flow will proceed. Axioms are simple statements of fact that all parties can agree on. Here’s a relevant list for the situation at hand:

Team Biden would like to force all Americans to take a Covid-19 vaccine but lacks the constitutional authority to order them to do so directly.

There is a stubbornly high number of Americans that steadfastly refuse to get vaccinated.

Team Biden has been pressing large corporations to institute vaccine mandates for their employees as a condition of continued employment.

Southwest Airlines received more than $5 billion on Covid-19 related relief from the government and owes its very survival to such support.

The problems Southwest experienced on Sunday were unique to them and no other airline suffered significant flight cancellations.

There is a pronounced labor shortage across the country, including in the airline industry.

The economy cannot operate if currently unvaccinated Americans are barred from the workforce.

The economy must continue to operate.

Given that fact set, we speculate the Southwest incident is almost certainly related to vaccine mandates.  We further suspect this marks the beginning of the end of zero tolerance policies by corporations on the vaccine issue. It just won’t work. In the battle between capital and labor, labor currently has the upper hand. If labor refuses to get vaccinated, there can be no mandates. Already, Southwest CEO Gary Kelly seems to be backing down:

“Southwest CEO Gary Kelly had a major announcement on Tuesday about the vaccine mandate the airline recently issued: His company won’t be enforcing it.

During an interview with ABC News on Tuesday, the CEO said that no employees would be fired over the company’s vaccine mandate. Earlier, the airline announced that all employees needed to get vaccinated against COVID-19 by November 24 or face termination.”

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